Economics and Foreign Films

The US economic situation is turning into a joke. The president and the Fed both believe that the economy can avoid a recession; however, to dodge the recession the Fed will focus on stabilizing the economy with rate cuts that allow banks to recover capital from defaulted loans. This will poor money into banks which will only increase inflation driving up the prices of consumer good particularly basic food stuffs and oil. The hope is that the stimulus package passed earlier this month passed by congress will help to encourage market stabilization.



Earlier this week I saw two foreign films. The first, Prisoner of the Mountain is a Russian film based on the short story Prisoner of the Causes by Tolstoy. The film is about two Russian soldiers who are captured during the Russian-Chechen War and held as prisoners while their Chechen overseer awaits ransom. While the acting and cinematography are sometimes laughable the story itself is interesting and contains some laugh out loud moments. The other film was the first in a series of ten by the famous Polish director Krzysztof Kieślowski called The Decalogue. Each film is loosely based on the one of the Ten Commandments. The first film examines the commandment "I am the Lord your God. You shall have no other gods before Me..." . This film was a really great interpretation of the commandment where a man's belief in logic and reason is challenged by his young son. I would recommend this film and I am curious to see the others.

Kosovo Creates World Headaches

In the week since the tiny province of Kosovo declared independence from Serbia the world has been watching the results. While the Serbian public embarrassed itself looting and pillaging Belgrade, the government quickly called on their traditional ally Russia for support. Russia stated that it would support Serbian efforts to retain the Kosovo region while the western world still supports the independence of Kosovo. The Russians helped ignite the first World War in 1914 by defending Serbia, and with nationalist tensions still an issue the chances for another war growing.

During the Cold War the Balkan Peninsula was united as the single nation mostly under the leadership of Josip Tito. Tito was the only person able to hold this entire region and all its ethnicities together, and soon after his death in 1980 Yugoslavia began collapsing. By the 1990s the entire peninsula became engulfed in war until NATO stepped in to end the conflicts.

Why do the Serbians care about a region that is 90% ethnic Albanians? Because the greatest battle in Serbian history took place in Kosovo where the Serbian Hero Prince Lazar and his army faced off against the Ottoman Empire, and losing this territory would be like the US allowing Massachusetts to become its own nation.

With Russia's re-emergence as a world power, and the continued disagreements with the US governments missile defense system in Eastern Europe, the threat of a new confrontation with Russia is very real. As Putin tries to re-expand Russia's influence into Eastern Europe disagreements with the west will be occurring more often, and his successor will carry on his tactics of intimidation.

For more info on the Kosovo see Noel Malcolm's Kosovo: A Short History, for a great interpretation of the Balkan War and its after math see Slavenka Drakulic's They Would Never Hurt a Fly, and for info on Russia and the emerging conflict see The New Cold War: The Future of Russia and the Threat to the West by The Economist's Edward Lucas.